2019 Play or Stay Away – Week 5

             This game we play can be so insane. It can be predictable like Christian McCaffrey being drafted in the top 3 and then being worth that draft price as he has 99.4 points in half-ppr formats. It can also be maddening like drafting Saquon and watching him go down with an ankle injury. Luckily for Saquon owners he looks set to demolish the initial 6-8 week timeline! On a weekly basis I feel like we are reminded how much parody exists in the NFL and in fantasy football. Week 4 for example was absolutely bonkers. Of course we had monster games from Nick Chubb but we also saw the so called “elite” wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. rack up a whopping 20 yards! Speaking of elite: Ezekiel Elliott, who has taken some time shaking off Mexico and returning to that elite status, was held to only 1.9 yards per carry last Sunday night against the Saints. Finally, we saw juicy STUD performances from Jordan Howard and Jameis Winston. You started them both didn’t you? No you didn’t but if you had, you would have scored over 60 points from just the two of them in most leagues.

            This week I want to remind you again that we play a weekly game yes, but it lasts for the entire season. We are about a third of the way through the fantasy football season and while that is a little intimidating there is still time. Depending on your league size, playoff rules, and format you are like not as “out of it” as you think. Tell that fear in your brain to shut the hell up and grab you a beer! Fantasy football is largely a game of possible outcomes. What is the most likely thing to happen given this player’s track record, volume, style of offense, etc? Don’t beat yourself up too much because Jameis Winston was a bad play, the Rams had been suffocating opposing quarterbacks and should have kept this Bucs team in check. The Rams clearly disrespected Winston and it showed as he torched them. You shouldn’t disrespect your process and the things that help you make sound decisions. Like listening to us, The Fantasy Whisperers

             This is a friendly reminder that this article is all about giving you a fresh take on some guys that I feel have the clearest path to succeed at their position and the dudes who are going to have a real hard time getting it done on gameday. I hope you enjoy, and remember to leave a like or comment below or on social media and let me know your questions or input! You can always find me on twitter: https://twitter.com/bigtravyTFW or Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bigtravy/

Play 

QB

Jameis Winston at New Orleans Saints Watch me completely contradict myself right off the bat, Whisper Nation, with my take on Jameis Winston. Based on what we just saw the Saints do to Dallas at home last Sunday night, only a fool would trust Jameis on the road, right? This one comes with some risk, for sure. Jameis has a catalogue of Jekyll and Hyde type performances in his career. The casual fantasy football player may not be excited about Winston’s prospects in this game but as we dive a little deeper, the situation is quite enticing. After a month of action, only the Dolphins are allowing more points to opposing QBs and in that same month Jameis is QB11 and this includes week one against the 49ers in which he put up less than 10 points! I believe we may be getting what we hoped for in the offseason with Tampa Bay, a productive offense led by a quarterback who is not afraid to push the ball downfield and has one of, if not the best WR tandem in the NFL. Put Winston in this week and let him help you eat a W.

RB

Miles Sanders vs New York Jets Most of Whisper Nation that has any shares of the Eagles backfield must also have shares in the Costco-sized Ibuprofen bottle. As much as things can change week to week in the NFL I believe I saw a shift for the Eagles last week. Lost in the Jordan Howard 3 touchdown performance, was Sanders being elusive, explosive, and most importantly: not fumbling the football. Sanders ran for 72 yards on 11 carries and even though they didn’t use him in the passing game against Green Bay, they have shown the ability to get him the ball in those spots with 10 targets in weeks 1-3. Howard has hold on the red zone work for now but Sanders is clearly more of a talent. What excites me the most, however, is that Sanders plays the Jets this week as double digit favorites at home. Sanders will get run here and if you cannot start him in this matchup, it is worth asking when will you?

WR

Marquise Brown at Pittsburgh Steelers Air yards are a sexy metric in fantasy football. In the words of Austin Powers, “But what does it all mean, Basil?” Air yards measure the total distance the football is thrown past the line of scrimmage to the point of the catch. Because this takes out things like YAC and the QB being off on a throw, it is an incredibly predictive and sticky metric. It helps us get a true grasp on how well a WR is doing. If he racks up air yards it means he is running deep and well ran routes. Some of the names in the top 10 for air yards this season include: Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Kenny Golladay, Julio Jones, John Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, and…Marquise Brown. Brown has been much more than a one trick pony some believed he was given his size and speed. Hollywood Brown is also receiving 25% of his team’s market share. This is incredible for a guy with his game-breaking speed Think of Tyreek Hill in the KC offense. Obviously the Ravens are NOT the Chiefs, and Lamar is not Pat Mahomes, but the numbers are pointing to some serious positive regression. No other WR has more than 9% of Baltimore’s target share, and Pittsburgh is surrendering, on average, 26.1 fantasy points to enemy wide receivers. This is as good of a blow up spot as any!

TE

Tyler Eifert vs Arizona Cardinals I watched the Bengals on Monday night and you did too. So I get it. But there are things I am sure of in this life: death, taxes, and the Cardinals literally can’t guard the tight end position. Not only are the Cardinals the worst team against fantasy tight ends, they allow seven more points than any other team and give up nearly 20 points per game to the position. I am confident you will be able to stream the TE playing against Arizona for the rest of this season and end up with a top 12 TE. Eifert isn’t a sexy streamer but he has seen 5 targets in 3 out of 4 games and just watched his teammate John Ross head to the IR. With A.J. Green not yet back from action it is up to the Tylers to lead the pass catchers in Cincy and this Tyler gets a plus matchup in week 5.

Stay Away

QB

Baker Mayfield at San Francisco 49ers Baker Mayfield is the cheating spouse. He is gas station sushi. He is this country’s law makers. Bakery Mayfield cannot be trusted. Period. There is no doubt the Browns are stacked. We have gone on at length about it. On any given week, we could argue that Baker “could” go off but we are just sitting here waiting for him to show up like a sad little boy who’s workaholic father is late to pick him up from school. Baker’s 2019 highest point total is 16. 16! The position is too deep to consistently keep whiffing on a weekly basis. I admit that the Browns looked strong and determined against the Ravens last week, but it was behind the aforementioned monster performance of Nick Chubb. If the Browns want to consistently win, it may require a more run heavy approach which does not bode well for Baker’s fantasy football output. On top of it all, Baker will travel to the Bay Area to take on a 49ers team that is currently a top 10 team against opposing quarterbacks. San Fran has been allowing only 15 points on average to the position. Baker by all accounts should have better days but it is hard to “set it and forget it” with him these days.

RB

Josh Jacobs vs Chicago Bears Josh Jacobs has been a staple for the Raiders and likely for your fake football roster. He is averaging 5 yards per carry and has a couple of scores on the year already, propelling him to just outside the top 12 in standard scoring leagues at the RB position. His lack of pass catching in this offense is concerning but not as concerning as his matchup this week. Obviously the Bears are great against the run but just how good are they? Really friggin’ good! Through 4 games, Chicago is allowing less than 60 yards on average to opponents backfields. They have only allowed a single rushing touchdown and that was last week against the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook. I don’t like Jacobs this week and you shouldn’t either.

WR

D.J. Chark at Carolina Panthers Chark has been a ton of fun this year, surprisingly consistent, the Jaguars’ clear number one option, and the WR10 in PPR formats. At some point we have to believe in the guy. I do, I swear. I think. Well, not this week. He has scored in all but one game this season and has 8 or more targets in half of his games this year. Chark will be traveling to Carolina to face his toughest secondary yet. The Panthers are not an easy defense to pass or really move the ball on in general. Only 7 teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to Chark’s position and only the Bills and Pats have allowed fewer touchdowns. Chark should find the bench for you if you can afford it.

TE

Delaine Walker vs Buffalo Bills I just mentioned the Bills and their defense against the WR spot but it gets even worse for tight ends as they are #2 fantasy defense against tight ends, allowing less than 5 points per game to guys like Delaine. Buffalo has kept every tight end they have faced out of the end zone and Walker hasn’t hit paydirt in nearly a month. I have trust issues with the Titans in general, especially in the passing game and even more so against a borderline elite Bills defense. 

#FantasyFootball #PlayorStayAway

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