2019 Play or Stay Away – Week 7
Patience. That is the theme of my fantasy football strategy for 2019 and I highly encourage it for you as well. Don’t get me wrong, if you are looking at an offensive situation and it looks bad after six weeks, then it may just be time to abandon ship. Maybe you have Baker Mayfield and that offensive line looks terrible and he is running for his life and therefore your fantasy football life’s on the line. Maybe you told your entire following, the entirety of WhisperNation that O.J. Howard was going to break out this season and be one of the top 3 TEs in the NFL and in fantasy football. These are both dire situations that have caused me to look long and hard into the mirror about who I am as a fantasy football player.
With any good challenge or adversity faced, we should grow. The same can be said about our process in determining player value, skill, and fantasy football prowess. I like to look at predictive stats when evaluating my players before maybe trading or cutting them. One player that comes to mind is DeAndre Hopkins. This guy is a stud, in most leagues he was a first round pick this year. But right now Nuk is sitting as WR15 in PPR and has not scored since week one. Fantasy owners are ripping out hair and cursing at their television. It is important to note that Hopkins is 10th in air yards and if you watch his games Watson looks to him in all important situations on 3rd and 4th down frequently. There are predictive metrics that show Hopkins will have better days and is likely a buy low target like his ridiculous 28% target market share and the aforementioned air yards.
Hopkins like many other underperforming stars require patience. Maybe you feel like you can’t, but I am willing to bet that you can. Remain patient with your studs, make moves if you have to but always dig deep before making any major decisions similar to how your research has led you here before you lock in your week seven starting lineup.
This is a friendly reminder that this article is all about giving you a fresh take on some guys that I feel have the clearest path to succeed at their position and the dudes who are going to have a real hard time getting it done on game day. I hope you enjoy, and remember to leave a like or comment below or on social media and let me know your questions or input! You can always find me on twitter or Instagram
Jacoby Brissett vs Houston Texans If you check out our rankings for week seven rankings you’ll notice that we have Jacoby as our #10 overall quarterback this week. Now a lot of why we, and specifically I like him this week is his juicy matchup against the Texans. Houston is now the 9th best matchup for opposing fantasy football quarterbacks. Brissett will also have T.Y. Hilton in the lineup and likely the healthiest version of Hilton we have seen this year. Brissett has not been bad by any means either and prior to his matchup with KC before the bye Brisseet had 4 straight weeks of 20 or more points in 6pt TD leagues. With more byes rolling through, Brissett is a nice play this week.
David Montgomery vs New Orleans Saints This one is quite the risky play. It goes against a lot of the fantasy football “hive mind” this week. Montgomery will face a tough New Orleans defense that has been downright dominant over the last month in Drew Brees’ absence. So why on earth am I telling you to start him? The strength of the Saints defense is their pass rush and typically when opposing coaches want to combat a fearsome pass rush, it is by attacking with the run game. Being at home and as favorites in this contest I expect the Bears to feature a heavy dose of the run game. Montgomery has not been a very rewarding fantasy football asset this season after a long offseason of hype. In week one he only managed 7 total touches but since then he has averaged nearly 18 touches per game and maybe more importantly he is averaging 2.5 red zone touches per game in his last month of play. I think we are nearing a shift for the Bears as they will lean on the run game and Montgomery’s elite tackle breaking ability to spark this offense and it starts this week.
John Brown vs Miami Dolphins Start your players against the Miami Dolphins. Do I really need to tell you anything else? Ok, ok. Regardless of matchup John Brown has been pretty good for the Bills and his big armed quarterback Josh Allen. Brown has posted the PPR WR26 numbers this year and that includes a bye week last week in there. In four of five games played this year Smokey John Brown has 5 or more catches and 50 or more yards. The problem has been he has only scored once and that was all the way back in week one. This scoreless streak has a great shot of ending as the Dolphins have allowed 21 pass plays to travel more than 20 yards this season and only the Cardinals and Falcons have allowed more passing touchdowns this season.
Jimmy Graham vs Oakland Raiders As a Packer fan I can be honest about what I am seeing or better yet, not seeing out of Jimmy Graham this season. He has been slow, plagued with drops, and part of an offense that is the most run heavy of Aaron Rodgers’ career. This play this week is more about the desperate position that is the tight end in fantasy football. TE is hard to come by, Jimmy faces a Raiders team giving up just under 15 points per game to TEs, and the Packers could be down their top 3 pass catchers this week against Oakland. Don’t be as scared of Jimmy this week as you should be for his 2019 outlook.
Phillip Rivers at Tennessee Titans Rivers and the Chargers as a team this season have been extremely disappointing. This team went from one of the most explosive teams in the NFL last year to an embarrassing mess that just got walloped by the Broncos and Steelers in back to back weeks. Rivers has only had one game above 20 points this season in standard leagues and things aren’t looking to get any easier this week. Rivers will face a Titans defense that is bottom 8 in points allowed to QB at a weekly average of just 13.64 and they have only allowed 8 passing touchdowns this year. This is not a get right spot for Rivers and you should look to fade him if possible
Carlos Hyde at Indianapolis Colts Typically I don’t advise benching a guy that is coming into the game with back to back 20 plus carry efforts. But I am not sold on Hyde’s monster performance against a very weak Chiefs rush defense. This week Hyde plays a Colts squad that is in the bottom 10 of points allowed to the RB. Additionally we just saw the Colts strategy against a Mahomes led Chiefs squad. They like to play keep away and dominate the time of possession and I expect them to deploy a similar strategy against a red hot Deshaun Watson led Texans team. Less time equals less opportunities for Hyde and I think coming off the bye, the Colts can solve the Hyde riddle.
Robby Anderson vs New England Patriots This is not about Robby Anderson or Crowder or even Sam Darnold. I need to preface this by saying we suggested to pick up shares of the Jets passing offense but just not for this week. The Jets have the tough task of trying to move the ball through the air against the NFL’s best defense and doing so after the Patriots have had 10 days to prepare for them. Bench Anderson this week but make sure you hold him as the schedule really starts to open up after.
New England TE’s at New York Jets In that same game I would fade the Patriots TE situation. Whether you are having Gronkian-like flashbacks or you think the Patriots resigning Benjamin Watson will mean big things this week, you should probably pump the brakes. Only 5 teams have allowed fewer yards to the tight end position than the New York Jets and they have only given up one receiving TD to the position as well. I understand the allure to starting your New England TE given the depletion of TB12’s weapons but you should look elsewhere this week.