This weeks’ slate is one of the harder slates to decipher so far this season. There has been no real value that has opened up, which there usually is by now due to injuries or other circumstances. There were a lot of plays also on FanDuel that have been priced way too low the past couple of weeks, but the site finally realized what was happening and decided to price up a lot of those value plays that have been readily available. My approach to this slate is playing the high total games, and finding some of the value plays that may be lower priced in salary. There are only a few games that are projected to be high scoring this weekend, so everyone should consider stacking up those games in their lineup for the highest upside.
Jameis Winston – $7,600 Jameis Winston has been my favorite quarterback so far this year on FanDuel and for some reason, they still have continued to not price him where he deserves to be priced. He has been consistent every week and he has such a high floor for cash games with Bruce Ariens’ system. Winston at $7,600 is only slightly priced above the low-level quarterbacks this week which are players like Sam Darnold, Jeff Driskel, and Daniel Jones. I would take Winston above all of those players easily because of not only his high floor, but he also always has the ability to score 30+ points. He did get slightly banged up last week with an ankle injury, but practice reports suggest that he has not looked injured this week in practice. There are many reasons that I love Winston this week. First, Winston has 3078 passing yards so far this season to go along with his 19 touchdowns which both rank top five in the league. He is also throwing for 10.4 yards per attempt which ranks #1 in the league. Winston is not afraid to throw the ball down the field in any given situation. The Bucs also take on the Atlanta Falcons at Atlanta, which means that they are in a dome. The Falcons’ defense has been much better the past few weeks, playing a big part in the wins against the Saints and the Panthers, but the Falcons had shown everyone earlier in the season that these past couple of weeks may have been a mirage.
Alvin Kamara – $8,300 Kamara will be the optimal play for cash game lineups this week because most people are not going to want to pay the price tag for McCaffrey, but he is hard to fit into a lineup and still feel good about the rest of your lineup. Alvin Kamara has underperformed this year for fantasy, and people who drafted him high are not regretting their decision. The good news is that Drew Brees is back in the starting lineup after being injured for most of the season. In the three games that Brees has been on the field so far with Kamara, his target totals have been 8, 10 and 10. When Bridgewater was the starting quarterback, Kamara only saw ten targets one time in five games. Most people are afraid of Kamara because of Latavious Murray taking some of the volume, but Kamara is still seeing roughly 13 carries per game and also has 51 receptions so far this season which is #3 in the league. The Saints also take on the Panthers this week at a total of 47 right now, which means that this game has the possibility to shoot out which would benefit Kamara with pass catching volume.
Julio Jones – $8,400 The Falcons are at home the week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is the perfect recipe for Julio Jones to go off for one of his signature 200 yards and two touchdown games. The main argument for Jones going off this week is that the Bucs’ passing defense has been terrible so far this season. The Bucs have allowed roughly 291 passing yards per game so far this season which ranks #31 in the league. The other factor to take into consideration about this matchup is that the Bucs’ defense is giving up 257 yards per game at home while giving up 313 yards while they are on the road. That is a significant home-road split and luckily the Falcons are playing in Atlanta for this game. Matt Ryan is a competent quarterback, and Austin Hooper more than likely is not going to be playing in this game which means Jones should also see an uptick in his target volume with not many options in this offense other than him. At $8,400, Jones should be considered as the #1 receiver in all of your cash game lineups.
Zach Ertz – $6,100 Zach Ertz has been one of the best tight ends in the league so far this year, even though he may not seem like it due to what his expectations were coming into the season. Ertz has seen 85 targets so far this year which ranks as #2 in the league, and gives him plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. He also has 621 receiving yards which is #3 in the league so far this year, but where he lacks is the touchdown department with only two so far this year. Ertz is priced on FanDuel as the fourth tight end on the slate, and has an extremely affordable price to fit in some other studs into your lineup at only $6,100. The Seahawks rank as the 28th best passing defense, giving up 271.8 yards per game, so this game could turn into a passing game considering how bad both pass defenses are. As long as FanDuel keeps pricing Ertz at $6,100 I will continue to put him in my lineups and smash with him every week.
Dak Prescott – $8,100 Dak Prescott has been a pleasant surprise to most fantasy players so far this season. I came into the season thinking that Prescott was a below average option at the position, but it seems that the Cowboys have stopped relying on their running game so much, and have started passing the ball more often. Prescott has scored 23.2 fantasy points per game this year which ranks as #3 in the league. He has the most passing yards at 3220 and also has thrown for 21 touchdowns which ranks #2 at the position. The Cowboys are playing against the New England Patriots this week, which is a terrible matchup as the Patriots’ defense has only allowed 152 passing yards so far this season. If Dak continues his level of play then he will be a high upside play at a low ownership percentage. Noone will want to play Prescott this week, and he could be a great option to stack with some of his low owned wide receivers as well.
Christian McCaffrey – $10,500 Christian McCaffrey is as solid of a play as you can find on any given slate. The running back has produced at an extremely high level every single week except for one this year. McCaffrey is the #1 running back so far this season for fantasy, and at this point there is no reason not to pay for him to be in at least some of your lineups. The reason that I decided to put McCaffrey in the GPP section of the article this week is that he has been consistently 25-35 percent owned since his price hike up to $10,500. He has evaded 69 tackles so far which is almost 7 per game, McCaffrey is just a different level of talent when he’s on the field making everyone miss, and he will continue to see the production that he has so far this year. The New Orlean Saints should be able to perform well against the poor Panthers’ defense, which means that the Panthers will have to rely on McCaffrey to keep this game close. McCaffrey is a great option even with his high price tag, because he will be low-owned and is more than likely a guaranteed 30 point play.
Courtland Sutton – $6,800 Courtland Sutton has been on an absolute tear the entire season and has proven himself as the alpha receiver in this offense. He has proven himself as a reliable piece in this offense, and has been the go to target for Brandon Allen since he took over in the offense. Sutton has seen a 27.3% red zone target share so far this year and also has 8 red zone receptions this year which is #6 in the league. He is a big receiver and also has the chance to score a touchdown or two in any given game. The Broncos are taking on the Bills this week in what should be an ugly game, which means that most DFS players are going to be off him this week. Long story short, the Broncos’ offense is not great for fantasy while the Bills’ defense has been one of the best so far this year. I would project him to be no more than 10% owned this week, so if he can continue to see the red zone work that he has so far this year and scores two touchdowns, it would put you in a really good spot to cash in GPPs.
Dawson Knox – $4,800 Dawson Knox is somewhat of a long shot this week at a position that it may be worth punting the position and seeing what you can come up with. Knox has been quietly had some great games this year that put him in the running to be a good option for DFS especially at only $4,800, which is almost minimum pricing. I love targeting this Broncos and Bills game, because almost all of the players are going to be low owned, and if the game somehow ends up shooting out, there is a huge advantage to having some of these players in your lineup. Knox has had 13.9 yards per reception so far this year, which makes him #1 at the position in this statistic. He has not been the most consistent player so far this season, but I think that taking a shot on a couple of touchdowns at an extremely low price is worth it. The Broncos defense is also known to be great against opposing offenses’ wide receivers, and if that happens to be the case this week, then most of the passes will more than likely be funneled into the middle of the field. I don’t see any reason not to play Knox this week, especially if you are looking to save some cash to pay up at your other positions.