Fanduel DFS Picks – Week 4


Week three of the NFL was where we started to see things return to normal as we expected at the beginning of the season. Keenan Allen continued his reign of terror on opposing defenses, Mike Evans finally showed why he is considered the WR1 on his team, and we saw the Daniel Jones project take New York by storm. We also had a lot of surprises this week, Baker Mayfield looks like he has lost all of his talent overnight and Kyle Allen stepped in for Cam Newton and threw for four touchdowns against a bad Arizona defense. There will continue to be ups and downs for players who you may not expect through the season, but the key to success is not relying too much on recency bias especially in the DFS format. I know that it seems like your season may be over already, or you may have had some bad breaks in DFS the first three weeks of the season (as I have so far). It is important to not get too discouraged, and remember that everyone has some bad weeks.

Cash Games

Daniel Jones $7,300 My philosophy for cash games at the quarterback position is that I do not pay up if I do not need to, so that I can have some salary left for more important positions in my lineup. Daniel Jones this week is one of the cheaper quarterbacks who I feel confident in playing until he proves me wrong otherwise. Last week against the Bucs, Jones threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns last week, while rushing for 28 yards and two touchdowns near the goal-line. Jones showed that he can take over for Eli Manning and command an offense to a high level. Another important element to Jones’ success is that Saquon Barkley is going to be out for the next 4-8 weeks with a high ankle sprain. The Giants are not going to be able to lean on Barkley to carry the workload for their rookie quarterback who I believe is going to have to throw the ball a ton.. The Giants take on the Washington Redskins at home this week which is a plus matchup as the Redskins have allowed three passing touchdowns in each of their games this season. The Redskins look like they are not going to be able to stop any opposing quarterback this season. Playing Daniel Jones in your cash games is not going to be pretty, but he will score a sufficient amount of points for your lineup and allow you to pay up at the other positions this week.

Marlon Mack – $7,300 There are not many high-priced running backs on this slate that I want to play. Normally, I prefer to pay up at the running back position, but this slate does not have Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, or Saquon Barkley. The only true workhorse running back that is left on the slate is Christian McCaffrey who is all the way up at $9,000 against a good Houston Texans team. If you are like me and want to pay down at the position this week, I believe that Marlon Mack is the safest best in cash games because of his workload in an above average offense. Mack through the first three weeks of the season has seen 25, 20, and 16 carries to go along with four receptions and two touchdowns. The Colts want to rely on Mack to carry the workload instead of putting the game on Brisett’s back and they have proven that through the first three games of the season. The Colts are also taking on the Oakland Raiders who last week gave up 143 total yards and a touchdown to Dalvin Cook. Expect the Colts to get up in this game over a bad Raiders team, and if that is the case then we should see Mack get a hefty workload and receive over 15 carries. I believe he will finish the week as a top three option at the position. 

Keenan Allen – $8,100 I am going to go right back to Keenan Allen this week, which was a great pick in my write-up last week as he scored a whopping 37.1 points against the Houston Texans. Until proven wrong on Allen, I will continue to smash him into my lineup as the best play on almost every slate as long as he is seeing the same volume he has through the first three games. So far through three weeks, Allen has seen 42 targets which is 14 per game, this puts him on pace currently to receive 224 targets throughout the season. Now, this trend will probably start to swing back to earth because of variance, but I do not think that the Miami Dolphins are going to be the defense that stops Allen’s insane volume. Keenan Allen is also #1 in total target distance this season at 495, he is #1 in the league in receptions at 29, and has 5 redzone receptions which is #2 in the league. Allen is playing like the all around best wide receiver in the league this season. The Miami Dolphins’ defense also has been one of the worst in the league and the Chargers are huge favorites in this matchup. I would expect Allen to see a ton of volume this week and it is possible for him to put up another two touchdown game against a poor defense. 

Will Dissly – $5,400 This pick at tight end is going to be straight chalk in your lineup, as everyone is going to be playing Dissly this week. The good news is that we are looking at cash lineups where we do not care about ownership percentage and he is a relatively cheap option to save you money at the other positions. The reason that Dissly is going to be so owned this week by players is that he takes on the Arizona Cardinals who have been atrocious against tight ends so far this season. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed at least 75 receiving yards and one touchdown to every tight end that they have played so far this season. Greg Olsen torched them last week for 75 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals have shown that they have no will to stop passes over the middle of the field, and will continue to be gashed until they prioritize stopping the tight ends. Dissly has become one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets, seeing about five targets per game. Although the Seahawks have a low passing volume on offense normally, the Arizona Cardinals have the fastest pace in the league which means that the Seahawks are going to be forced to run more offense plays. As long as Dissly sees another five targets this week, I could see him returning value at his semi-cheap price. 

GPPs

Matt Ryan – $7,900 Matt Ryan takes on the Tennessee Titans this week at home. He may not be the cheapest option at the position where we normally like to save money, but he has been on fire this season scoring over 20 fantasy points each week so far. The Atlanta running game has been lack-luster to say the least, and I believe that they are going to continue to rely on the passing game to carry their team. Ryan has also proven that he plays much better at home over the years. The Tennessee Titans’ defense has been pretty good this year, but we have seen them give up over 200 yards passing and two touchdowns to Gardner Minshew, and the week before that they gave up three passing touchdowns to Jacoby Brissett. We know that neither of those quarterbacks are top options at their position, and I think that facing a closer to elite quarterback in Ryan will prove to be too much of a challenge for this defense. 

Josh Jacobs – $6,000 Josh Jacobs is the guy that I am looking to take a shot on in GPPs this week. His ownership percentage should not be super high due to him falling back to earth the past two weeks after his amazing start in the first game of the season. Jacobs and the Raiders take on the Colts this week. Although this game may not turn into a shootout, I believe that it is going to stay competitive for the most part which means that game-script is going to be in Jacobs’ favor unlike the past two weeks when he did not perform. The Raiders have gotten down significantly the past couple of games against the Chiefs and the Vikings, which is why I believe that Jacobs was not used in the same way he was the first week against Denver. Jacobs has seen 45 carries over the season, which is a tremendous workload and puts him at #10 in the league for carries. He also has two total touchdowns so far, but the best statistic is that he has 18 evaded tackles so far this season, which ranks him at #7 in the league and shows his ability in the running game. Jacobs should continue to see a great workload in this game, as long as the Raiders can keep the game close. 

Julio Jones – $8,500 There is little reason to not consider playing Julio Jones as your #1 wide receiver this week against the Tennessee Titans. I have decided to go with the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stack this week because I feel like the Falcons are going to dominate the Titans’ defense and if Matty Ice has a huge game, it is more than likely that Jones will be the prime beneficiary of the targets. The knock on Julio Jones coming into the season was that although he is an enormous human being, he was never able to catch touchdowns for some inexplicable reason. Lucky for fantasy owners, it seems as though Jones did some soul-searching in the offseason and realized that he was the only thing holding him back in this regard. So far on the season through three games, Julio has caught a touchdown in every game and even caught two touchdowns against the Eagles in week two. He also sees a great 2.33 deep targets per game and currently has 372 total target distance which is #6 in the league. I expect the Falcons to score early and often in this game against a defense that I believe has not been tested yet this year. If the Falcons end up blowing out the Titans, expect Julio Jones to have a huge game that could win you a lot of money this week.

Delanie Walker – $5,700 Since we are already playing the entirety of the Falcons’ offense in this game against the Titans, the smart decision would be to run the game back with Delanie Walker if the Titans are going to be down this week. Delanie Walker this year has proven that he is one of Mariotas’ favorite targets, seeing 7 targets per game which is #8 in the league at the position thus far. Walker has had 16 receptions through the first three games, and has a total of 177 yards of total target distance which is #7 in the league for a tight end. Mariota does not have a lot of weapons around him in the passing game, and Walker has shown that he can step up when the offense is in a tough position. There are two main elements to factor in when making your decision about Walker this week. First off, Keanu Neal who was the Falcons’ best safety tore his Achilles last week, which means he will be out for the season. Normally, Neal would shadow the tight ends in coverage and would take away their ability to have good games. Now, the Falcons’ are going to have to find another solution to taking away the tight ends on the field. The other factor is that if the Falcons’ get up early in this game like I expect them to, the Titans are going to have to throw the ball much more than they would like to. Walker could have a 20 point game this week, and I expect him to have a low ownership percentage due to the matchup. 

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